2024 Election Forecast Model. Out of 80,000 simulations, kamala harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. The primary model (primarymodel.com) relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.
This year’s version of the time for change model shows kamala harris as a narrow favorite in both the popular vote and electoral college, but her predicted margins are. At exactly midnight on tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle.